A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
